You're doing your jobs using CCE in Q-VBR right?
To me it seems that the Q factor also is responsable for the rise of the peaks.
BTW: at 352x576 and using the Notch .... do you really need more than 2500kbit at max??? I do encode all my KDVDs using a max of 3000 @ 704x576 and they do come out perfect, no matter if in uneasy waterscenes or explsions etc. Best example is "Private Ryan" which I encoded also at max=3000.
So at 352x576 and 2500max the VBR will have enough room to "breath", ... or did you recognise ay quality drops at high Bitrate scenes
Another BTW: Ocean's Eleven and Gladiator should easy fit on one KDVD using 704x576, even in anamorph mode. I also encoded these both movies, ... not in this constellation but I do know how they do behave.
Do you predict the movies a way that each of them has to fit to a "half of 4,3GB"??
Thats not the right way, cause maybe one of them needs less space for the same quality which will give more space to the more needed quality of the other movie
So do an AVS Script where both movies are appended and do a prediction accorded to the 4,3GB minus the total amount of MB of the Sound (AC3 5.1). After prediction do enocde both movies using the archieved Q value and you'll end up that exact as the Q based prediction is able to be exact.
And by this both movies incl. audio tracks will fit on that 4.3GB DVD-R