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Originally Posted by Angies_Husband
the irrational exuberance of the market over the past 2 years has taken me quite by surprise,
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I'm mostly shocked by the tiny bear market of 2020 that jumped from spring to fall, tiny ~5% correction at Halloween, and then continued into the frothy meme madness of 2021. The bear should have lasted months, not weeks. See how finances shake out, not blindly (stupidly, even) throw money at it. Zooms, Peletons, etc. Ugh.
But so far in 2022, we've unwound almost all of 2021, aside from some large caps heavy on the indices. I knew one of two things would happen: reversal of 2021, or long sideways trading deep into 2023. Thankfully, the former happened, some buying entries from it. But even with reversals, a lot of stocks have to settle into their valuations (thus P/E etc normalizes), or sink some more to meet them. I still think we'll get another leg down, after this quarter of earnings is over. We'll see. I still have cash in an IRA, ready to go all-in on a deep dip. QE/rate tantrum pt2, even if misguided.
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and my just-for-fun personal portfolio has taken a beating (losing over 60% of it's value). Yep, it's true.
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Aw.
I know I'm up 50%+ from my 2020 buys, and it's mixed mostly flat for 2021. But I'm a longterm, those will all be positive eventually. I didn't really buy any meme or SPAC crap, nothing crazy speculative.
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As for the future... well, I haven't changed my mindset, although I've changed my approach to a few things (like buying tangible assets as an inflation hedge). Overall, I still think the market is in an unsustainable bubble, but it's been propped up for so long, maybe it's become "too big to fail?"
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Going into 2020, I thought for sure that 2016-2019 was a sugar high from low taxes. So I was mostly looking for stocks that retreated to 2015 levels. But that was a mistake. I should have settled on 2017 valuations, to buy at the March/April 2020 double-dip. I didn't take into account (1) the 2015 pullback, (2) P/E and settling into fair valuations by 2020. I should have bought more in 2020, which would have used up the money that didn't really do anything from my 2021 buys.
So I'd be careful trying to wait for a hard crash that wipes out years of stock earnings. I don't think that will happen, short of something insane like USA going to war with Russia.
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But the pandemic did have some silver linings, like a whole bunch of free time to spend refurbishing a Panasonic AG-DS850 and replacing every single SMD electrolytic capacitor on each daughterboard. Good times.
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Bravo.
